Iran issue

Iran issue - has long worn out theme! However, not long ago I came across a report of the Energy Center of the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo (by Maria Belova, Julian Lee) called "If tomorrow the war." The result of the analysis of this report, I want to put in this article. In the beginning, I made a number of questions, the answers to which may allow a picture of the risks and consequences in case of realization of these risks. The result was the following format: My question is - the data of the report - my reasoning.
So the first question is: Is it advantageous to the U.S. and pro-American countries in the fall of the current regime in Iran?

Yes. Deals! Iran - now it is the second country in the world in natural gas reserves (16% of world reserves), the fourth in the world's oil (9.1%), the third country in the world in terms of oil exports (6.5%) and the fourth oil producer (5.2%) and gas (4.6%). Now imagine the situation: as a result of certain actions of the U.S. and eliminate the current regime to power in Iran comes a loyal U.S. State Department mode, which is the output State Department - the Middle East (see figure)
 World's dependence on hydrocarbon supplies is greater than ever. Now, tell me one good reason not to implement its own geopolitical interests of the U.S., which would have outweighed the benefits in case of success?
Will there be a war in Iran? Maybe yes, maybe no. I do not know. But the fact that the United States will make every effort to replace the current regime in this I have no doubt. Too many benefits to the United States will, if successful,
Does weaken Russia's position in the event of war? And in the case of military regime change (rise to power of the pro-American regime in Iran)? In case of war, oil prices shoot up, that will give Russia a short term profit. Further, if the U.S. and its allies gain power and change in one quarter, the physical shortage of oil can be avoided by covering the deficit from reserves by the IEA. Some time will be needed to restore production and sales channels, ie world will experience a physical shortage of oil in 90 days. Much worse the situation will develop in the LNG market, as the outbreak of hostilities will lead to an overlap of the Strait of Hormuz - the main channel of LNG (more details here) (~ ¼ falling global production / delivery), and hence the natural gas market in short term benefits to Russia. In the long term prices with pro-American regime of Iran goes on the world oil market again, and Russia gets serious competitor. Particularly affected Gazprom due to the emergence of a new volume in the European market. Besides the new regime certainly reconsider his view on the Caspian Sea, which also does not promise anything good Russian.
What will happen to the oil market in the long-term oil embargo of Iran? While maintaining an embargo on oil from Iran problem, which occurs before the U.S. and its allies is to prevent a sharp rise in prices since it will reduce the effect of the embargo (the formula P * V, where the P-value, V-volume. If a limitation of oil supplies from Iran to the embargo, the effect of the embargo could be offset by the increase in the price - saving the same amount of sales revenue less total) .
What is the volume of oil ceases to be supplied to the international market in the event of war and block the Strait of Hormuz? About 17 million barrels / day, or 83 million tons of oil a year. This volume does not drop in the history of ever!

4,5,6 month of hostilities will be the most intense - as from 4 months supply deficit falling from overlapping the Strait of Hormuz will increase (start depletion of the strategic reserves of IEA and oil importers. particularly hard hit by oil shortage Asia-Pacific countries.
I believe that the beginning of military action against Iran will drop the equity markets. In the beginning, most lomanetsya good old habit in the dollar. Strategically in the long term may be affected Gazprom, although short intense bursts of quotes on Gazprom I do not deny (can be implemented in the following scenario: The war rally in the dollar, oil-falling equity markets around the world (except for the S & P and DJIA) then restorative rally in Russia's Naftogaz (especially Gazprom will vary) 3-4-5 months after the collapse of the bubble in the oil market and the sale of Russian oil and gas industry.
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